Predictions for electoral upset, or how John McCain owes his presidency to Bill Clinton

With the election more than six months away only a fool would make predictions. Uh... I realize I'm going far out on a weak limb but at least nobody has asked me to make a wager yet. I say John McCain will win in November.

Its already begun. Democrats are already tired of the infighting. Some of the friends who just weeks ago would say 'I'm voting democrat no matter who they nominate" are now saying "screw Clinton, I'm voting for Nader if she's nominated." Its happening on both sides of the new Democrat party divide. The longer and harder HilRod fights the more her supporters become attached. It doesn't take much bitterness from Obama to form a grudge.

You see, HillRod cannot win. Cannot. Its over. Its impossible for her to collect enough delegates through primaries to surpass BHO's lead. For all the coverage and money spent and hours of our lives wasted she gained 10 points on OHB's 160 point lead. She also cannot be stopped - she's the liquid metal terminator. (Will someone please make a video of HillRod rising from a pool of liquid metal?) Only she and Bill know how she plans to take the nomination. This is politics after all, anything can happen. Persistence might pay off if a bombshell lands directly on BHO. Not a literal JDAM, but the newer more accurate info bomb. If Barry becomes truly unelectable before the convention by way of scandal HillRod will be seen as wise to have stuck it out. She must be trying very hard to release the bombs, but regardless she's fighting to the end. Creating loyalists along the way.

Those loyalists will not be voting for Obama. They may stay home, some may vote Nader, and a few will vote McCain. The opposite would be true if Mrs. Clinton won - his supports aren't wild about her. At a minimum these won't be as energized to be riding a new horse. They liked their old horse. They aren't going to be enthusiastically arguing at the water cooler, or harassing neighbors to register and vote, or donating. (More on donations in a moment.)

Hillary's base is middle class working women. Mostly white women ages 25 - 105. Probably some other women too, but not black women. Barry has the black vote and he'll take them to his grave. Lots of the Clinton and Obama enthusiasm comes from the newness and excitement of electing the First Black or First Woman President. That mostly appeals to you if you're Black or female. When the choice is between BHO and McCain I think white middle class women jump to McCain in large numbers. Obama agrees. Consider this statement by his campaign manager David Axelrod:
"The white working class has gone to the Republican nominee for many elections, going back even to the Clinton years." (ED. Did he just call Bill a Republican? Slam!)

Onto donations: The longer the blue-on-blue fight continues the more resources the left is spending against itself. When November rolls around how many contributers will be at the $2300 limit?

More later...